Caribbean Netherlands Population–Larger and Older by 2030

The Caribbean Netherlands population (Bonaire, St. Eustatius, and Saba combined) is expected to rise by 2030.

According to the latest forecast by Statistics Netherlands (CBS), the population of the three islands of the Caribbean Netherlands is expected to grow further from 25,000 currently to 30,000 by 2030. In particular, the number of older inhabitants will increase.

The population forecast projects the most likely scenario for the future development of the Caribbean Netherlands population. In this forecast, CBS uses a simulation model which uses research assumptions regarding birth rates, migration and life expectancy as the basis for projections. However, migration developments are especially difficult to forecast. If the number of migrants settling in the Caribbean Netherlands until 2030 is one-quarter lower than projected, the population of the three islands will only go up to 28,000. If the number is one-quarter higher, the population of the three islands will continue to increase to 33,000.

Caribbean Netherlands Population increase is the strongest on Bonaire.

Since the islands of Bonaire, Saba and St Eustatius became special municipalities of the Netherlands on October 10, 2010, their population has risen from a combined 21,000 to a combined 25,000. This increase is almost entirely attributable to the largest island, Bonaire. The population of St. Eustatius declined from 3,600 to 3,100 while that of Saba saw a slight increase, from 1,800 to 1,900d inhabitants.

According to the forecast, the population will rise on all three islands in the coming years. Bonaire’s population is projected at nearly 25,000 by 2030, while the number of inhabitants on St Eustatius and Saba is expected to reach 3,400 and nearly 2,300 respectively. At the start of 2011, 74 percent of the Caribbean Netherlands population were living on Bonaire. This is expected to rise to 81 percent by the year 2030.

Population growth mainly due to migration.

External migration contributes more to the population growth on the Caribbean Netherlands than natural growth (births minus deaths) does. Since 2011, the number of immigrants settling on the islands stood at over 1,900 annually, including more than 500 from the European Netherlands. Each year, nearly 1,600 emigrants left the islands. There were over 200 live births annually, while the number of deaths stood at more than 100. According to the forecast, slightly more children will be born annually until 2030, but also more people will pass away. Slightly fewer immigrants are expected to arrive while fewer emigrants will be leaving. Net migration and net natural population growth are expected to be approximately the same as in the period since 2011.

Caribbean Netherlands Population on the islands is ageing.

The Caribbean Netherlands has few elderly compared to the European Netherlands. Just under 13% of the inhabitants are 65 years or older in 2019, versus 19% in the European Netherlands. Since 2011, the number of elderly people has risen and this trend is expected to continue. The forecast projects that 20% of the inhabitants will be over the age of 65 in 2030. The proportion of minors living in the Caribbean Netherlands is approximately equal to that in the European Netherlands. Their number is anticipated to be more or less the same in 2030 as it is now.

More European Dutch settling on the islands.

Since the start of 2011, the number of residents of the Caribbean Netherlands who were born in the European Netherlands has increased from 1,900 to 3,300. According to the forecast, this number is expected to go up to 4,600 by 2030. Immigrants from the European Netherlands have a clear preference for Bonaire: 9 in 10 settle on this island. Among immigrants from outside the European and Caribbean Netherlands, this is 6 out of 10.

(Source:  Central Bureau of Statistics)